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The Downing of the Azeri Plane—A Lesson for Relations in the Post-Soviet Space | INSS

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INSS Insight No. 1932, January 14, 2025

The circumstances of the downing of a plane belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines and the official responses by Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan highlight the complex and dynamic nature of Russia’s relations with its neighboring countries in the post-Soviet era. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and other countries in Central Asia would like to reduce their dependence on Russia, Moscow’s current economic weakness—a result of the international sanctions imposed on it—has made it increasingly reliant on these countries. This dynamic has allowed them to demand that Russia treat them with more respect while they also benefit from Russia’s economic dependence on them. The Azeri plane incident also underscores the gradual decline of Russian influence in the post-Soviet space, as other players take its place.


A passenger jet of Azerbaijan’s national airline en route from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny, the capital city of Chechnya, crashed near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan on December 25, 2024, after being hit by a missile from the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system. According to Russia’s assertions (of dubious credibility), the Russian air defense systems were being used against Ukrainian drones at the time that the Azeri plane was attempting to land in Grozny. The Russian aviation authorities, however, failed to warn the Azeri plane’s crew to avoid the area, causing the plane to be hit. In addition, Russian aviation authorities rejected requests by the plane’s crew to land at nearby airports and instead referred the plane to Aktau, on the other side of the Caspian Sea, where the plane crash-landed. The circumstances of the downing of the plane and the series of official responses to the incident, especially by Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, have brought to light the complex and dynamic nature of the relations between Russia and its neighboring countries in the post-Soviet space.

As expected, the Russian authorities’ initial response was total silence. In contrast, Russia’s official media began spreading false reports that the plane had collided with birds, leading to the crash. This pattern of immediate denial and spreading false reports is typical of Russian policy in situations of this type, as happened following the downing of the Malaysian plane in 2014 by Russian forces in the airspace over Donbas. This time, however, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev made three public demands of Russia: apologizing for the incident, taking responsibility for it and bringing those guilty to trial, as well as compensating the Azeri airline and its passengers. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who usually demonstrates arrogance and contempt in such situations, apologized for “the tragic incident that occurred in Russian airspace during attacks by Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.” Furthermore, after Aliyev made it clear that this apology was inadequate, Putin initiated a second conversation with the Azeri president in an effort to ease the tension between the two countries.

Behind the Azeri president’s boldness are weighty factors and circumstances involving the balance of the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. Bilateral relations between the two countries have reached a new level of closeness in recent years, prompted by Russia’s international isolation and dire economic straits. At the same time, the Kremlin has become increasingly uneasy with the dysfunctional Armenian government headed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. In effect, Russia has abandoned Armenia, having recalculated the benefits gained from relations with Azerbaijan—something that Armenia regards as tantamount to treason—thus allowing Azerbaijan to achieve victory in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. Azerbaijan’s triumph has created a new situation in the Caucasus, in which Russia recognizes Baku’s more independent stance, while Turkey is increasing its influence in the region alongside Russia. In 2024, the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan met frequently to discuss economic cooperation, particularly in the field of energy. It seems that in Azerbaijan, there is a sense that Russia’s reliance on their economic cooperation has increased, effectively bolstering President Aliyev’s confidence.

In addition to its growing military and political power, Azerbaijan is taking advantage of its oil and natural gas resources to develop substantial cooperation in the energy sector with the European Union, despite the political tensions with France. The war between Russia and Ukraine has reduced the supply of Russian gas to Europe and enhanced the importance of the Azeri gas pipeline—the Southern Gas Corridor—which passes through Turkey to Europe. Given the failure to renew the agreement for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine (the agreement expired on December 31, 2024), the European Union has been considering a number of alternatives to increase Azeri gas exports to Europe. Among the options considered is the possible indirect inclusion of Russia in the new export format, which would enable Russia to expand its gas exports to Turkey instead of Europe. Azerbaijan would play a key role in realizing this option. The plan includes classifying the Russian gas that reaches Europe as Azeri gas and designating Azeri gas that reaches Turkey as Russian gas. It should be noted that in 2023, Russian gas corporation Gazprom posted its first loss since 1999. This dealt a harsh blow to the Russian state budget and bolstered Putin’s motivation to appease Aliyev in order to obtain his consent to include Russia in the emerging export plan.

As a result of the crash-landing of the Azeri plane in the city of Aktau, another country in the post-Soviet space—Kazakhstan—has been forced to deal with the sensitive incident involving its two important neighbors. The Kazakh aviation authorities have been reluctant to ascertain the circumstances surrounding the plane crash, opting to leave the decision to the Brazilian aerospace manufacturer to avoid a potential dispute with Russia and Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan’s caution in this matter can be attributed to its dependence on both countries. Russia is one of Kazakhstan’s most important trading partners, with about 80% of Kazakh oil exports passing through Russia. This economic dependence is compounded by fear of Russia’s military power—despite having been somewhat weakened by its military failures in Ukraine—which remains a salient concern, especially given the repeated statements by Russian nationalists threatening to occupy the northern part of Kazakhstan.

Concurrently, the Kazakh authorities are undertaking measures to diversify their trading partners and explore alternative oil export routes, with the Azeri Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline playing a critical role in these efforts. In contrast to Azerbaijan, which has formed a strategic alliance with Turkey and has sought to distance itself from Russia, Kazakhstan’s substantial dependence on Russia necessitates a more circumspect policy. Nevertheless, even cautious Kazakhstan joined Azerbaijan and other countries, including Israel and the United Arab Emirates, in suspending flights to Russia by their national airlines following the crash of the Azeri plane. Furthermore, the presidents of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, two countries that also have complex relations with Russia, personally extended their condolences to the president of Azerbaijan. In this context, it should be noted that beyond their shared challenges concerning Russia, there are signs of increasing solidarity among the Turkish peoples in Central Asia and Azerbaijan, with Turkey positioned as one of the primary beneficiaries of these processes.

The plane incident highlights the dynamic relations between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, the latter being seen as a defeat for Russia and a victory for Turkey. Russia’s diminished influence has emboldened Azerbaijan, enabling it to display considerable self-confidence and engage in dialogue with Russia on more equal terms. Taking a more cautious stance, Kazakhstan has refrained from automatically aligning with Russia and has not given Russia preference over Azerbaijan. These developments are further eroding Russia’s role as the dominant power in the region.

At the same time, while Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries are working to reduce their reliance on Russia, they are not seeking to completely disengage from it. Rather, they are demanding, as Tajikistan’s President Rahmon stated in 2022, that Russia treat them “with respect.” Russia’s current weakness, exacerbated by international sanctions, has given these countries leverage to assert their demands while concurrently capitalizing on Russia’s growing economic dependence on them. Azerbaijan has gone further by positioning itself as a potential partner in Syria’s reconstruction. Under Turkish sponsorship, it is upgrading its relations with the new regime in Syria, taking advantage of Russia’s loss of influence in the region and is reopening its embassy in Damascus after 12 years.

The downing of the Azeri plane also provides a unique glimpse into the complex relationship between Russia’s President Putin and the Chechen Republic, led by Ramzan Kadyrov. The Azeri airliner was struck by fire from the Pantsir-S1 air defense system, which was stationed in Chechnya following a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on military facilities there. The Pantsir-S1, an advanced short-range air defense system, has also been stationed in Moscow, in Valdai and Sochi to protect Putin’s palaces, as well as in eastern Ukraine. Its deployment now in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, highlights the priority that Putin is giving to his relations with Chechnya’s leader, Kadyrov.

Despite the involvement of Chechen aviation authorities—under Kadyrov’s control—in shooting down the Azeri airliner, Putin has refrained from holding Kadyrov or his allies accountable. This attitude reflects the close relationship between Putin and Kadyrov over the past two decades, during which the Russian federal government has given Kadyrov enormous budgets and has allowed him to establish Chechen military units under his exclusive authority. Kadyrov’s mercenaries have clashed with Russian federal law enforcement multiple times, and Kadyrov himself has publicly excoriated their leaders, without repercussions, thanks to the Kremlin’s support. Furthermore, Putin has continued to give special attention to Chechnya and has supported Kadyrov’s policies, including the Islamization of the republic; during a recent visit to Grozny, Putin publicly kissed the Qur’an. Putin appears to value Kadyrov’s blind personal loyalty to him as invaluable, making it unlikely that he would risk alienating Kadyrov by holding him or his men accountable, even to placate Azerbaijan’s president.

Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has further exposed the incompetence of the Russian army, which remains unable to defeat Ukraine after three years of conflict. Concentrating all of Russia’s forces on the Ukrainian front has now enabled slow progress, but it has also undermined its military presence in Syria, a factor that contributed to the overthrow of the Assad regime. The Azeri airliner incident also underscores Russia’s waning influence in the post-Soviet space, with other powers, notably Turkey, taking its place. Domestically, the special status of Kadyrov in Chechnya and his private army are both indicative of Putin’s inclination to strengthen his own “Praetorian Guard,” amid his government’s failures.

In January 2024, as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, he is likely to encounter a different Putin from the one he knew during his first term in office: a president who is not a winner, but rather marked by successive defeats, who has been backed into a corner and threatens to adopt desperate measures. Israel should also consider these developments as it revises its policy toward Russia.

The opinions expressed in INSS publications are the authors’ alone.

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Trump Shares Video Of Academic Arguing ‘Dark Son Of A B*tch’ Netanyahu Urged US Into ‘Phony Wars’ In Iraq And Syria

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President-elect Donald Trump shared a blistering critique of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by economics professor Jeffrey Sachs that blasts the leader for having dragged the United States into “phony wars” in Iraq and Syria.

Trump posted the clip to Truth Social just hours after his whirlwind press conference on Tuesday during which he repeated his desire to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland as well as warning of “hell” to pay if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages taken during the October 7 attack by the time he returns to the White House.

In the clip, which splices together portions of the academic’s remarks to the soundtrack of sci-fi film Interstellar, Sachs can be heard calling out previous Washington administrations for using “lies and deceit” to manufacture citizen backing for overseas conflicts before rounding on Netanyahu’s influence on U.S. foreign policy.

The 70-year-old academic, who has made guest appearances in recent months on MAGA podcasts, including Tucker Carlson’s show, held nothing back in the footage. He highlighted U.S. actions in Syria, alleging covert efforts to overthrow Bashar al-Assad before Russian involvement while slamming mainstream media outlets, like the New York Times, for failing to properly report on it.

The war in Syria, and you may actually hear from grown-up reporters who are lying through their teeth or ignorant beyond imagining, ‘That, oh, the war in Syria, yes, Russia intervened in Syria.’ Well, do you know that [former President Barack] Obama tasks the CIA to overthrow the Syrian government starting four years before Russia intervened?

What kind of nonsense is that, and how many times did the New York Times report on Operation Timber Sycamore? Which was the presidential order to the CIA to overthrow Bashar al-Assad? Three times in 10 years.

Turning to the 2003 Iraq invasion, Sachs accused Washington of manufacturing public consent through “focus groups” before pivoting to blame Netanyahu:

They actually did focus groups in the fall of 2002 to find out what would sell that war to the American people… It was a phony war. Where did that war come from? You know what it’s quite surprising; that war came from Netanyahu, actually.

He added that Netanyahu devised a strategy to topple governments backing Hamas and Hezbollah—namely Iraq, Syria, and Iran:

He’s a deep dark son of a bitch, sorry to tell you… So what is this democracy versus dictatorship? Come on, these are not even sensible terms.

Trump’s decision to share the video comes only months after he hosted Netanyahu and his wife at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, where both leaders appeared cordial, and weeks before he is set to return to the world stage as president.

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Зеленский призвал союзников выполнять договоренности по поставкам оружия

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Президент Украины отметил, что решения, принятые на саммите НАТО в Вашингтоне, а также на встречах в Рамштайне относительно поставок систем ПВО для Украины, до сих пор не реализованы в полной мере

Президент Украины Владимир Зеленский в воскресенье призвал союзников выполнить все данные ими обещания по поставкам оружия, в том числе для противодействия российским воздушным ударам.

Зеленский заявил, что за последнюю неделю российские войска нанесли сотни ударов по Украине, было использовано около 700 авиабомб и более 600 ударных беспилотников.

Украинские ПВО сбили 60 из 94 беспилотников, запущенных Россией за ночь, сообщили в воскресенье в ВВС Украины. В сообщении говорится, что 34 беспилотника были «потеряны», что означает использование Украиной средств радиоэлектронной борьбы для перенаправления российских беспилотников.

«Каждую неделю российская война продолжается только потому, что российская армия сохраняет способность терроризировать Украину и использовать свое превосходство в небе», – написал Зеленский в своем телеграм-канале.

Он призвал союзников Украины выполнять уже достигнутые договоренности.

«Решения, принятые на саммите НАТО в Вашингтоне, а также на встречах в Рамштайне относительно ПВО для Украины, до сих пор не реализованы в полной мере», – сказал Зеленский.

На этой неделе лидер Украины заявил, что обсудил с партнерами и Соединенными Штатами возможность предоставления Украине лицензий на производство систем ПВО и ракет.

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Top Azerbaijani diplomat: Armenia holds the key to lasting peace with Azerbaijan – Aze.Media

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The peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have progressed much since Baku took back control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. All progress was made possible through bilateral context and negotiations; instead of continuing on this path, Armenia insists on inviting more parties to the negotiation table. It remains unclear when Yerevan will cut the knot on changing its constitution with a territorial claim on Nagorno-Karabakh. “Armenia holds the key to lasting peace with us”, a top diplomat from Azerbaijan said.

“15 of 17 articles of the peace agreement between our two countries have been agreed upon, and negotiations are continuing about two outstanding articles”, the diplomat continued on the condition of anonymity to The Liberum. “Our primary concern is not the peace agreement itself but the continuous presence in the Armenian constitution and the territorial claim of Azerbaijani land.

He added: “Bilateral talks proved to be much more result-oriented and successful than any other format that existed for decades before but brought zero results. “Despite all the progress made, Armenia insists on holding on to institutions like the Minsk Group.”

The comments were made on the sidelines of the annual meeting organised by The European Network for Azerbaijani Studies (ENAS) and the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), an international affairs think tank. A tradition launched three years ago in which senior international diplomats, scholars and other experts are invited to discuss significant developments in Azerbaijan and the South Caucuses.

The Liberum was honoured to be invited to this year’s edition.

The senior diplomat, who was present in the past four years at all the significant rounds at the negotiation table, emphasised that it was ‘unfortunate’ that his Armenian counterparts still do not have a clear vision or picture of what they will do with the constitution: “Nikol Pashinyan said that the Armenian government is planning to deal with the issue of the Armenian constitution because they plan to make changes to the constitution, which is part of a broader agenda.

He added: “Pashinyan referred to 2027. In our part of the world, when you say that I am going to the Taiwan issue in three years, it means that I’m not interested enough to deal with this. If this is not fixed, any agreement we sign will be void, no matter the arrangement made from the signing.”

The diplomat raises a fair point by elaborating on this challenge. No international commitment and no international allegations can contradict your constitution, or any other act adopted by a referendum.

Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been crippled for over 30 years by the long-standing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The enclave became a focal point of conflict during the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s when Armenia seized control of the enclave and surrounding territories, resulting in more than thirty thousand casualties and displacing hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis.

After three decades of diplomatic efforts failed to yield a political settlement, Azerbaijan decided to revert to using force. In 2020, in a six-week war, it regained complete control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Initially, Moscow brokered a ceasefire, but when negotiations failed again to resolve the status of the enclave, Azerbaijan reclaimed the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh three years later in a military strike carried out Sept. 19–20, 2023, displacing more than 100,000 Armenians who fled as they refused to accept Baku’s jurisdiction.

Minsk Group & border

The Minsk Group has tried unsuccessfully to resolve this protracted conflict since 1992; Azerbaijan considers the group ‘totally dead’ since no funding or activity has been seen in the past four years. The “Minsk Group” of the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) in Europe acted as a mediator in the conflict involving the former Soviet region, to no avail.  
The status of the Minsk Group remains quite tenuous. Armenia continues to insist on its relevance and insists on maintaining the group’s involvement. Baku, given that the situation has been resolved in a draft peace agreement that respects each country’s territorial integrity, sees it as an institute that slows the peace negotiations.

In addition, co-chairs of the Minsk Group (Russia, France, and the United States) are currently unable to collaborate effectively, complicating any potential role they might play in future negotiations.

The diplomat emphasised many positive developments regarding the demarcation and state border. The commissions, led by the deputy prime ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, made huge progress this April. For the first time in history, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to limit and demarcate a piece of state border (13 km).

“This is the first time a positive outcome was achieved based on the negotiation. And this part was, by the way, very sensitive because in this part, in this specific kilometre, Armenia actually occupied some part of Azerbaijani territory for villages, and this situation was resolved peacefully”, he said.

For those interested, it’s advisable to research the history of the conflict to understand better what happened last year. Studying the 1993 UN Security Council Resolutions (822, 853, 874 and 884) is essential in that perspective. Faced with the prospect of rule by Azerbaijan, tens of thousands of Armenians, most of whom were illegally occupying Azerbaijani land, fled back to Armenia.

Negotiations will resume in early 2025.

By Arthur Blok

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Azerbaijan’s Aliyev sees potential alignment with Trump, criticises Biden administration

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Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has accused outgoing US President Joe Biden of favouring Armenia, and expressed hope for a renewed strategic dialogue after US president-elect Donald Trump returns to office. 

Political observers note that Aliyev’s comments signal frustration over perceived double standards from the current US leadership, a theme frequently voiced by the Azerbaijani president. Speaking to local TV channels on January 7, he also criticised EU members, in particular France, for “interference”. The message was similar to that conveyed by Aliyev in an interview with Russia’s Rossiya Segodnya agency in December, in which he signalled his alignment with Trump and other rightwing, illiberal leaders. 

Commenting on Washington’s role in the region, Aliyev argued that the Biden administration has “undermined ties” by favouring Armenia, contrasting this stance with “positive cooperation” under former presidents Bill Clinton, George Bush and Trump. 

“They [the current US administration] champion Ukraine’s territorial integrity but criticise us for restoring our own,” he said. 

Aliyev insisted that equitable engagement would enhance stability in the South Caucasus, calling for consistency in the application of international law. He highlighted past collaboration with US security and intelligence agencies as a model for future partnerships. 

He concluded by saying an improved Azerbaijan-US relationship could bring concrete benefits to both sides if mutual respect prevails.

Despite energy partnerships with the EU, Aliyev criticised Brussels for providing arms funding to Armenia through what he termed a “so-called peace facility”. He also faulted French President Emmanuel Macron for “constant interference” and attempts to boycott COP29. 

“We are ready for dialogue but only based on mutual respect,” he said, suggesting that unilateral policies undermine the EU’s credibility in the region. 

Analysts point out that Azerbaijan is currently a key gas supplier to multiple EU member states, making stable relations a mutual interest. Aliyev said that trust is essential: while Azerbaijan remains open to cooperation on trade and energy, it will not tolerate initiatives that weaken its security. Observers believe the stark differences on the Armenia issue could hamper deeper EU-Azerbaijan integration if not addressed. Still, Aliyev reiterated that constructive engagement, especially in the energy sector, could yield tangible rewards if executed fairly.

Embassy attack 

On Iran, Aliyev condemned an attack on Azerbaijan’s Tehran embassy as “organised terror” and demanded accountability for an Iranian cleric’s vitriolic remarks. 

Emphasising that “no one should interfere in our affairs,” he presented Azerbaijan as an emerging regional power ready to strengthen its defence if neighbours opt for rearmament. 

The president said Tehran’s failure to rein in provocative acts could spur further tensions, although he reiterated Azerbaijan’s interest in preserving good-neighbourly ties. 

Defence analysts suggest Baku’s commitment to ramping up security is a direct response to perceived threats from multiple directions, not just Iran. Aliyev implied that any repeat of terror incidents would prompt a far stronger diplomatic and security response. The president said that maintaining sovereignty is Azerbaijan’s top priority, and hostile rhetoric or actions would be met firmly.

Karabakh reconstruction 

Aliyev cited the liberation of Karabakh, which was under Armenian control until it was retaken by Azerbaijani forces, as a turning point that allows Azerbaijan to chart its own course without undue external pressure. He reiterated that assertive nationhood, bolstered by military victories, is helping Azerbaijan stand confidently on the global stage.

“Our victory in 2020 changed everything,” Aliyev said, calling it both a source of national pride and a driver of policy independence. 

Officials within his administration highlight ongoing reconstruction efforts in former conflict zones, with roughly 10,000 people already resettled in newly rebuilt towns and villages. 

The president urged foreign investors to seize new opportunities in infrastructure, green energy and technology within Karabakh.

Azerbaijan’s 2024 economic growth exceeded 4%, with the non-oil sector expanding by over 6%. Aliyev reported a rise in foreign exchange reserves to $72bn, while external debt stands at 7.2% of GDP—factors he said boost the country’s fiscal resilience. 

Aliyev stressed that a stable macroeconomic environment would attract more foreign investment, particularly in industrial and high-tech sectors. He attributed these gains to ongoing structural reforms aimed at curbing corruption and fostering transparency. 

The president urged Azerbaijani companies to take advantage of global trends, citing digital transformation as a major opportunity. Independent analysts say Azerbaijan’s diversified economic model has significantly reduced reliance on oil and gas exports, creating a more balanced outlook. Aliyev wrapped up his remarks on the economy by pledging continued support for private enterprise and job creation across the country.

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Will Azerbaijan join the games of the West against Russia and Iran?: EADaily

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Russia inherited damaged relations with Azerbaijan from 2024 to 2025. The formal reason for this was the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane on December 25 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. This plane was heading from Baku in Terrible.

Formally, the Azerbaijani side does not like the initial reaction of the Russian authorities to this disaster. Baku blames the incident on Russia. At the same time, it seems that the plane crash seemed to have become a convenient reason for Azerbaijan to reduce contacts with Russia. And first of all it concerns air traffic. Again, the formal reason is security. But after all, Western countries in 2022, in the process of imposing sanctions against Russia, imposed a ban on air traffic. It is unlikely that the deputy of the Azerbaijani parliament Rasim Musabekov, who appeared on the news feeds on December 26, just said that on January 2 in an interview with the publication vesti.az:

▼ читать продолжение новости ▼

"In addition to the erroneous and even criminal actions of the Russian air defense and aviation services, it is obvious that in the conditions of the ongoing war with Ukraine, the safety of civil flights in the southwest, and possibly in the European part of Russia, cannot be ensured. It is no coincidence that Azerbaijan has canceled regular flights to 10 Russian cities. Similar decisions were made by the airlines of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Israel. Regardless of the outcome of the investigation into the incident with the Azerbaijani airliner, the situation with flight safety in Russia remains relevant."

Here's an example of an Overton window. Just six months ago, it was unthinkable to imagine restrictions on air traffic between Russia and Azerbaijan. And now it has become a reality because of the plane crash that occurred. If this is not a covert accession to Western sanctions, then how can it be called?

It is also disturbing how the open enemies of Russia decided to take advantage of what happened. So, on December 28, the usurper Vladimir Zelensky called the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. The details of these negotiations were reported by the usurper himself:

"I had a conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and expressed condolences to him and the Azerbaijani people in connection with the horrific crash of Azerbaijani Airlines flight J2−8243. We noted the heroism of the pilots and the entire crew of the aircraft. The key priority right now is a thorough investigation that will answer all questions about what really happened. Russia should provide clear explanations and stop spreading disinformation. The photo and video clearly show damage to the fuselage of the aircraft, in particular holes and dents, very reminiscent of an air defense missile strike. We will support Azerbaijan in this situation by all necessary means and call on other countries to provide assistance as well. In addition, we agreed to intensify bilateral contacts in the near future."

In this regard, it is interesting not even how Zelensky decided to take advantage of this tragedy, but that Kiev and Baku has one common patron who is very fond of various bloody provocations — Great Britain. Moreover, we can observe how the Western and Azerbaijani media in the whole story of the plane crash near Aktau simply hushed up one of the factors that definitely does not contribute to safe air traffic — the strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including using UAVs, on the territory of Russia. And this is also understandable, because the plane crash that took place is being actively used to ensure that, despite the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan does not take it into its head to get closer to Russia.

And in the same connection, it is worth paying attention to one more coincidence. Deputy Musabekov, who commented on the plane crash in 2023, was saddened by the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces counteroffensive (see In Azerbaijan, saddened by the military failures of Ukraine). And on November 2, 2024 Musabekov in an interview vesti.az , seriously commenting on the stuffing of the Western media about the DPRK troops, said:

"Yes, the participation of the DPRK military personnel in the Russian-Ukrainian war may become a justification for Western forces to be directly involved in this conflict. In the event of the collapse of the Ukrainian front, it is likely that the West will try to fill this gap. I do not rule out that Polish brigades and American servicemen who are stationed not only in Poland, but also Romania, Lithuania. Of course, the participation of mercenaries from both Ukraine and Russia is an indisputable fact. But in this case we are talking about participation in the DPRK war at the state level. Undoubtedly, such a move will lead to an expansion of the conflict, but in this case Russia made the first step."

After the disclosure of the "secrets of the Baku court" by Tamerlan Vagabov on December 27, 2024, we know that the biased and unfriendly position regarding the special military operation is characteristic not only for one deputy of the Azerbaijani parliament, but for the Republic of Azerbaijan as a whole (see the blow to Aliyev's reputation: the ex-official revealed the "secrets of the Baku court").

But the matter was not limited to Ukraine alone. On December 30, the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda, called Aliyev, who did not fail to criticize Russia and said:

"Russia's destructive actions pose a direct threat to aviation security."

At the same time, and Aliyev discussed the situation in Transcaucasia, and on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, the President of Lithuania promised that the Baltic state would develop relations with the Transcaucasian country through culture and university cooperation. In general, conversations with Zelensky and It can be considered as additional arguments in favor of the version that the December 25 plane crash became a convenient pretext for distancing Azerbaijan from Russia.

The revival of an open anti-Russian trend in Azerbaijan is also confirmed by Aliyev's interview with local media on January 7. So, in this interview it sounded:

"... Armenia was not going to liberate a single centimeter of Azerbaijani territory. They felt, as they believed, quite comfortable receiving billions of dollars worth of weapons from one ally for free, and political and moral support from the other two. And thus, all three Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group during the period for which I am responsible were unequivocally on the side of the occupier... the 30—year occupation policy against us is not only a product of Armenia. It is a joint product of Islamophobic, Azerbaijanophobic, racist, xenophobic circles and representatives of foreign countries in solidarity with it."

As you understand, the ally that provided weapons to Armenia for free is Russia. It should also be noted that, criticizing George Soros and the Joe Biden administration, Aliyev spoke very flatteringly in an interview about Donald Trump, who won the US presidential election, who was initially the preferred candidate for Baku (see Azerbaijan hopes for Donald Trump's victory). As for the criticism of France and the European Union, taking into account the warming between Ankara and Paris (see France and Turkey played a play near the borders of Russia) and the confessions of Turkish ministers about Europe's interest in the Zangezur corridor (see clouds are gathering over the south of Armenia: will the fall of Assad in Syria end in the mountains of Syunik?) We would not take Aliyev's criticism of them at face value. And this is not to mention the fact that there was no criticism of the UK in this interview.

But in this interview, Iran got from Aliyev. Thus, he accused Iran of disrespect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.:

"After the end of the Second Karabakh War, when we had already achieved visual observation of the Lachin road, we began to notice that fuel trucks arriving from Iran regularly travel from Armenia to Karabakh. I gave instructions to my assistant, and he contacted the then Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan by phone and said that this should be stopped. We don't want to make it public, we just ask you to stop it. This is not good, we see it, this is our territory. You are doing illegal things here. Unfortunately, these actions have not stopped, but have become even more active. After that, as a second step, we invited the Iranian Ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where he was handed a note of protest, and we made it public. Following this, both funny and depressing events occurred. They attached fake Armenian license plates to Iranian fuel trucks, allegedly these are Armenian cars. But they also had inscriptions in Persian. This surprised us very much. We started investigating, found out that the same number is attached to several cars, that is, the number is the same, but the cars are different. Even this forgery they committed so carelessly that, by God, you can't find the words. After that, we already stopped several cars, the drivers were detained, and we saw that in their travel documents it was written: Stepanakert, Armenia. That is, it was a clear disrespect for our territorial integrity and sovereignty."

Then he remembered the military exercises, the attack on the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran and the insulting statements of the Ayatollah and representative of the Supreme Leader of Iran Seyyed Hassan Ameli in Ardabil on December 29, 2024. And judging by Aliyev's words, official Baku decided to use this case to cool relations with Iran.:

"This mullah of the city of Ardabil has repeatedly used offensive language against Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani people, including me. The question is, how does the person who appointed him to this position feel about this. He didn't take this position voluntarily. We know very well who appoints him. What is his reaction, whether he supports it or not, who will apologize to Azerbaijan? Will he apologize or not? The feeling of regret expressed in the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran is not enough. There was a clear insult here: both the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and our peoples, and at an official live event. And just regret? This, of course, is unacceptable. Therefore, we believe that this provincial mullah should be punished. At the very least, he should be removed from his post and he should apologize to Azerbaijan. That's the question."

The plane crash and the insulting statements of the Iranian Ayatollah are two different events. However, in a striking way, Azerbaijan acts in both cases as if it wants to slow down, if not curtail cooperation with Russia and Iran. It may be objected to us that on January 8, during Aliyev's talks with the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the international North-South transport corridor and trilateral cooperation in the Russia—Iran—Azerbaijan format were discussed.

But after all, despite the persuasions and persuasions from the United Kingdom and Israel, Azerbaijan cannot just abandon the North-South corridor and cooperation with Russia and Iran. He needs time for this. And if you also take into account the fact that Relations between Baku and Washington have always developed better under the Republicans, that is, there is a strong suspicion that Azerbaijan has already begun to prepare to withdraw from cooperation with Russia and Iran in order to join the ranks of the United States, Israel and the United Kingdom.

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Michael_Novakhov
4 days ago
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